
REGIONAL
TRANSPORTATION DEVELOPMENT MITIGATION PLAN REPORT
Department of Public
Works – Transportation
Public and Support
Services Group
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section 1 - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................ 1
Section 2 - OVERVIEW AND BACKGROUND OF THE PLAN............................................................... 6
(a) OVERVIEW..................................................................................................................................... 6
(b) REQUIREMENTS OF MEASURE I 2010-2040............................................................................... 6
(c) REQUIREMENTS OF THE CONGESTION MANAGEMENT
PROGRAM...................................... 6
(d) THE PLAN AND LOCAL AREA
TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES PLANS.................................... 8
(e) REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT CONTRIBUTIONS
NOT COVERED BY THE PLAN....................... 8
(f) CONFORMANCE TO CALIFORNIA GOVERNMENT CODE......................................................... 8
Section 3 - PLAN SUBAREAS AND BOUNDARIES.............................................................................. 10
(a) PLAN SUBAREAS......................................................................................................................... 10
Section 4 - GROWTH FORECASTS...................................................................................................... 11
(a) CONSISTENCY WITH SANBAG NEXUS STUDY
GROWTH FORECAST DATA....................... 11
(b) GROWTH FORECAST METHODOLOGY................................................................................... 11
(c) GROWTH FORECAST DATA FOR PLAN
SUBAREAS.............................................................. 11
(d) GROWTH RATIO OF NEW DEVELOPMENT FOR
MAJOR ARTERIAL ROADS...................... 14
(e) RATIO OF GROWTH OF FREEWAY
INTERCHANGES AND GRADE SEPARATIONS............ 15
(f) REVIEW AND UPDATES OF GROWTH FORECAST DATA...................................................... 15
Section 5 - REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES PROJECTS............................................. 16
(a) TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES PROJECT
SELECTION.......................................................... 16
(1) MAJOR ARTERIAL ROAD PROJECTS................................................................................. 16
(2) TRAFFIC SIGNAL PROJECTS............................................................................................... 16
(3) FREEWAY INTERCHANGE PROJECTS.............................................................................. 17
(4) RAILROAD GRADE SEPARATION PROJECTS................................................................... 17
(b) PROJECT LISTS BY PLAN SUBAREA........................................................................................ 17
(c) PRIORITIZATION OF PROJECT LISTS....................................................................................... 17
(d) INCLUSION IN GENERAL PLAN CIRCULATION ELEMENT........................................................ 17
Section 6 - PROJECT COST ESTIMATES........................................................................................... 18
(a) TYPES OF COSTS INCLUDED IN PROJECT
COST ESTIMATES............................................ 18
(b) PROJECT CATEGORIES............................................................................................................. 18
(c) METHODOLOGY.......................................................................................................................... 18
(1) MAJOR ARTERIAL ROADWAY PROJECTS......................................................................... 18
(2) FREEWAY INTERCHANGE AND GRADE SEPARATION
PROJECTS................................ 19
(3) TRAFFIC SIGNALIZATION PROJECTS................................................................................. 20
(d) ADMINISTRATIVE OVERHEAD CALCULATION AND APPLICATION......................................... 20
Section 7 - FEE CALCULATIONS.......................................................................................................... 22
(a) PURPOSE OF THE FEE.............................................................................................................. 22
(b) METHODOLOGY OF FEE CALCULATIONS............................................................................... 22
(1) CALCULATE TOTAL PROJECT COST ESTIMATES BY
SUBAREA................................... 22
(2) CALCULATE THE FAIR-SHARE CONTRIBUTION OF TOTAL
PROJECT COSTS
ATTRIBUTABLE TO NEW
DEVELOPMENT......................................................................... 23
(3) CALCULATE PLAN SUBAREA GROWTH WITH CONVERSION OF NON-RESIDENTIAL
GROWTH FROM
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES TO SQUARE FOOTAGE........................... 25
(4) CALCULATE THE TOTAL VEHICLE TRIP GENERATION IN PASSENGER CAR
EQUIVALENTS (PCEs) TRIP ENDS FOR EACH
TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT.................... 26
(5) CALCULATE TOTAL PASSENGER CAR EQUIVALENTS (PCEs) VEHICLE MILE
TRAVELED FOR EACH TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT............................................................ 27
(6) CALCULATE A “FEE-PER-TRIP”........................................................................................... 28
(7) CALCULATE SUBAREA FEES FOR RESIDENTIAL AND NON-RESIDENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT..................................................................................................................... 29
(8) VERIFY FEE LEVELS BY CALCULATING TOTAL
REVENUE GENERATION..................... 30
(9) VERIFY PLAN GENERATES DEVELOPMENT
CONTRIBUTION AMOUNT......................... 31
(c) AUTOMATIC ANNUAL FEE ESCALATION FACTOR................................................................... 31
Section 8 - NEXUS ANALYSIS............................................................................................................... 32
(a) REQUIREMENTS OF CALIFORNIA GOVERNMENT
CODE....................................................... 32
(b) RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FEE’S USE AND
TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT................................ 32
(c) RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NEED FOR TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES
AND TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT 32
(d) RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FEE AND COST OF TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES ATTRIBUTABLE TO DEVELOPMENT............................................................................................................................ 32
Section 9 – PAYMENT OF PLAN FEES................................................................................................. 34
(a) FEE PAYMENTS........................................................................................................................... 34
(b) EFFECTIVE DATE OF PLAN FEES............................................................................................. 34
(c) FEE PAYMENT FOR LAND USE CATEGORIES
NOT IDENTIFIED IN THE PLAN..................... 35
(d) PROTESTING FEE AMOUNTS IN A PLAN
SUBAREA................................................................ 35
(e) REFUND OF FEES....................................................................................................................... 36
(f) DEVELOPER FEE CREDITS AND
REIMBURSEMENT AGREEMENTS.................................... 36
(g) EXCLUSION FROM FEE PAYMENT............................................................................................ 38
Section 10 - PLAN ADMINISTRATION.................................................................................................. 40
(a) PLAN ACCOUNTING FUNDS....................................................................................................... 40
(1) DISTRIBUTION OF FEES...................................................................................................... 40
(2) INTEREST............................................................................................................................... 41
(b) PLAN REPORTS........................................................................................................................... 41
(1) SANBAG ANNUAL DEVELOPMENT MITIGATION PROGRAM
REPORT............................. 41
(2) ANNUAL PLAN REPORTS..................................................................................................... 42
(3) FIVE YEAR REPORTS........................................................................................................... 42
(c) REFUND OF SURPLUS FUNDS.................................................................................................. 43
(d) UPDATES TO THE PLAN............................................................................................................. 43
(1) REGULAR UPDATES............................................................................................................. 43
(2) ANNEXATIONS....................................................................................................................... 43
(e) COMBINED DEVELOPMENT MITIGATION PROGRAMS WITH CITIES..................................... 43
Appendix 1 – PLAN Project List and Costs............................................................................................ 1
Additional Appendices on file at San
Bernardino County Department of Public Works – Transportation, Transportation Program
Management Division:
Appendix
2 - SANBAG Development Mitigation Nexus Study
Appendix
3 - Department of Public Works Project Cost Estimate Study
OVERVIEW AND BACKGROUND OF THE PLAN
– Section 2
The
Regional Transportation Development Mitigation Plan of the
Each
local jurisdiction, including the
The
SANBAG Development Mitigation Nexus Study (SANBAG Nexus Study) determines the
fair-share contributions from new development for each local jurisdiction. The total development fair-share of cost, or
“target share amount” for which the County is responsible to generate through
THE PLAN is $197 million, which includes the required
SANBAG required 12.9% cost escalation factor for FY 2004/2005.
This total is distributed among the PLAN SUBAREAS based upon project
lists and growth forecasts.
THE
PLAN is intended to generate only the development fair-share contribution of
project costs as required by the CMP and is not intended to provide 100%
funding for or construct all projects listed in THE PLAN. Additional regional Measure I and
federal/state funds administered by SANBAG are required for full funding of
projects listed in THE PLAN.
PLAN BOUNDARIES – Section 3
THE PLAN contains sixteen (16) PLAN SUBAREAS, twelve (12) of
which represent unincorporated areas within the San Bernardino Valley and four
(4) of which represent unincorporated areas within the Victor Valley. With two exceptions, the boundaries of these
PLAN SUBAREAS correspond to the boundaries of the city spheres of influence as
defined by the Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO) of
1. Adelanto Sphere of Influence
2.
3.
4.
5. Devore/Glen Helen Unincorporated
Areas
6.
7. Hesperia Sphere of Influence
8. Loma Linda Sphere of Influence
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14. Upland Sphere of Influence
15. Victorville Sphere of Influence
16.
GROWTH FORECASTS – Section 4
Growth forecast data for THE PLAN is
based upon the growth forecast data contained in the SANBAG Nexus Study. THE PLAN utilizes the same forecast growth
data in order to remain consistent with the SANBAG Nexus Study and generate the
required “target share amounts”. For
residential and non-residential development, growth forecast data is projected
separately in each PLAN SUBAREA to be used in calculating development impact
fees. Regular review of growth forecast
data is essential to the success of THE PLAN in generating a fair-share
contribution of development toward the SANBAG Nexus Study “target share
amount”.
REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION FACILITY
PROJECTS – Section 5
A
list of Major Arterial Road projects was developed for each PLAN SUBAREA
consisting of all County maintained roads with an existing Master Plan
classification of Secondary or greater, as designated in the 1989 General Plan
Circulation Element. Although not a
requirement of the CMP or the SANBAG Nexus Study,
PROJECT COST ESTIMATES – Section 6
Within each PLAN SUBAREA, specific
projects have been identified as regional transportation facilities. The project costs associated with each
project identified in THE PLAN are for additional traveled roadway only and
include engineering, environmental, right-of-way, construction, and administrative
overhead costs. Environmental impact
mitigation such as purchase of habitat for endangered species is not
included. Where another local agency
shares jurisdiction with the County for a project, costs are prorated between
the jurisdictions based upon actual road miles within each jurisdiction, and
only the County’s share of the project cost is identified in THE PLAN.
An
administrative overhead cost was calculated for major arterial and traffic
signal projects consistent with the formula used for the Measure I
administrative overhead rate. Currently,
all indirect costs for labor, services, supplies, and overhead are paid
initially out of the County Road Fund.
THE PLAN will reimburse the County Road Fund for THE PLAN’S share of
those indirect costs. This is consistent
with existing Department policy concerning reimbursement of the County Road
Fund from Measure I revenues through direct labor costs attributable to Measure
I projects.
FEE CALCULATIONS – Section 7
The purpose of the fees is to fund
the fair-share development contribution of improvement costs for specific
transportation facilities as identified in Appendix 1 of THE PLAN. Fees are intended to generate only the
development fair-share contribution of project costs as required by the CMP and
are not intended to provide 100% funding for or construct all projects listed
in THE PLAN. Additional regional Measure
I and federal/state funds administered by SANBAG are required for full funding
of projects listed in THE PLAN. Fees
vary between PLAN SUBAREAS due to the unique project lists and growth
projections for those unincorporated areas.
In all PLAN SUBAREAS, a residential fee is required for each dwelling
unit. Non-residential fees are based
upon the predominate use of the building or structure and calculated on the
total square footage of the building or structure. To calculate fees, the fair share development
contribution of total project costs in a PLAN SUBAREA is divided by the
projected vehicular trip generation attributable to new development in the PLAN
SUBAREA. The fair-share fees
attributable to new development for PLAN SUBAREA are summarized in the
following table:
|
JURISDICTION |
Fee for Single Family Dwelling Unit
|
Fee for Multi Family Dwelling Unit |
Fee for Retail per square foot |
Fee for Office per square foot |
Fee for Industrial per square foot |
Fee for High Cube |
|
Adelanto
Sphere |
$0 |
$0 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
|
|
$6,422 |
$4,449 |
$7.79 |
$8.76 |
$5.09 |
$1.48 |
|
|
$10,364 |
$7,180 |
$23.69 |
$14.30 |
$8.22 |
$2.39 |
|
|
$4,401 |
$3,049 |
$0.79 |
$5.79 |
$3.49 |
$1.01 |
|
Devore/Glen
Helen |
$5,565 |
$3,855 |
$3.56 |
$7.38 |
$4.41 |
$1.28 |
|
|
$6,392 |
$4,428 |
$5.77 |
$6.78 |
$5.07 |
$1.47 |
|
Hesperia
Sphere |
$8,186 |
$5,671 |
$1.79 |
$11.04 |
$6.49 |
$1.89 |
|
Loma
Linda Sphere |
$4,120 |
$2,854 |
$0.00 |
$5.69 |
$3.27 |
$0.95 |
|
|
$7,160 |
$4,961 |
$16.37 |
$9.88 |
$5.68 |
$1.65 |
|
Rancho
Cuc. Sphere |
$0 |
$0 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
|
|
$7,216 |
$4,999 |
$6.63 |
$9.88 |
$5.72 |
$1.66 |
|
|
$2,073 |
$1,436 |
$4.74 |
$2.86 |
$1.64 |
$0.48 |
|
|
$6,223 |
$4,311 |
$14.22 |
$8.59 |
$4.93 |
$1.43 |
|
San
Bernardino Sphere |
$2,217 |
$1,536 |
$5.07 |
$3.06 |
$1.76 |
$0.51 |
|
Upland
Sphere |
$8,010 |
$5,549 |
$1.82 |
$11.05 |
$6.35 |
$1.85 |
|
Victorville
Sphere |
$3,886 |
$2,692 |
$1.27 |
$5.12 |
$3.08 |
$0.90 |
|
|
$3,735 |
$2,588 |
$3.68 |
$5.13 |
$2.96 |
$0.86 |
|
Average Plan Fee |
$5,057 |
$3,503 |
$5.72 |
$6.78 |
$4.01 |
$1.17 |
NEXUS ANALYSIS – Section 8
The unincorporated communities in the urbanized areas of the
The transportation development mitigation fees generated by
THE PLAN represent a potential source of supplemental funds which will be
utilized to construct projects that will mitigate the impacts of development. Future development within the described
benefit area will benefit from constructing the proposed transportation
facilities plan and should pay for them in proportion to projected traffic
demand attributed to each.
Revenues
generated by THE PLAN are not intended to fund fully the cost of THE PLAN’S
transportation facilities projects. Fees
levels have been developed to provide for only that portion of project costs
attributable directly to new development.
Construction of the projects identified in THE PLAN are dependent upon
receipt of additional regional Measure I funds and federal/state grant funds
that are administered by SANBAG.
PAYMENT OF PLAN FEES – Section 9
Residential
and non-residential fee categories will be determined based upon the Land Use
Classification as defined in the
Upon approval of the Director of
Public Works, the County may enter into a written Fee Credit agreement whereby
the developer may advance money, or considerations may be accepted in-lieu of
part or all of the payment of fees, for the design, land acquisition,
construction, financing, or purchase of a Plan transportation facility. Improvements to a regional transportation
facility by a developer must be a project identified specifically in the
Project List of a PLAN SUBAREA. Upon
approval of the Director of Public Works, the County may enter into a developer
reimbursement agreement for the balance of project costs only after one-hundred
percent (100%) of required fees have been credited to a developer.
Because THE PLAN fees are calculated
based upon total estimated project costs identified in THE PLAN’S Project List,
construction of transportation facilities not identified in THE PLAN are
ineligible for fee credit or reimbursement from THE PLAN funds. Other provisions of the County General Plan
may apply to reimbursement for construction of transportation projects not on
the Plan’s Project List.
For
Land Use Categories in a PLAN SUBAREA for which a fee is not established by the
PLAN, developer contributions toward mitigation of impacts to regional
transportation facilities shall follow the San Bernardino County Congestion
Management Program Traffic Impact Analysis process (CMP TIA) to determine a
developer mitigation amount.
PLAN ADMINISTRATION – Section 10
All fees collected under THE PLAN will be deposited into
separate accounts to avoid any commingling of the fees with other revenues and
funds of the County. Fees will be
deposited into funds based upon the PLAN SUBAREA in which the development
occurs and prorated among four project category funds within those subareas (Major
Arterial, Traffic Signal, Freeway Interchange, and Railroad Grade Separation)
based upon total project category project costs. Funds will be expended solely for the purpose
for which the fees are collected and specifically for the construction of the
transportation facilities projects listed in the PLAN SUBAREAS. Fees will not be used to construct any other
transportation facility not expressly identified in THE PLAN.
As set forth in Appendix J.8 of the San Bernardino County
Congestion Management Plan, the County Department of Public Works –
Transportation shall submit an annual development mitigation report to
SANBAG. The report shall be provided to
SANBAG within ninety (90) days of the end of the fiscal year. Appendix J of the CMP, Section J.3 requires
that local jurisdictions must provide for an annual review and adjustment to
project cost estimates. Although not
required by the CMP, the County’s annual review of THE PLAN will also include
review of growth forecast data and possible addition or removal of
projects. If necessary, fees will be
recalculated accordingly.
Section 2 - OVERVIEW AND BACKGROUND OF THE PLAN
The Regional Transportation Development
Mitigation Plan of the
(b)
REQUIREMENTS
OF MEASURE I 2010-2040
In November 2004,
Further, the Measure I Ordinance requires
that the cities and the unincorporated sphere of influence areas in the San
Bernardino Valley and Victor Valley must adopt a mechanism to “require all future development to pay its
fair share for needed transportation facilities as a result of new development
pursuant to California Government Code 66000 et seq. and as determined by the
Congestion Management Agency,” and to “comply
with the Land Use/Transportation Analysis and Deficiency Plan provisions of the
San Bernardino County Congestion Management Program pursuant to California
Government Code Section 65089.” The
Land Use/Transportation Analysis and Deficiency Plan provisions are found in
Appendix J of the CMP.
(c)
REQUIREMENTS
OF THE CONGESTION MANAGEMENT PROGRAM
Section VIII of Measure I 2010-2040 also
requires that the “Congestion Management
Agency shall require fair share mitigation for regional transportation
facilities through a Congestion Management Program update to be approved within
12 months of voter approval of Measure I.”
SANBAG serves as the San Bernardino
County Congestion Management Agency, and as such, implements and maintains the
Congestion Management Program (CMP) for
The SANBAG Nexus Study determines
the fair-share contributions from new development for each jurisdiction in the
urbanized areas of the County. This
includes the subareas identified in THE PLAN, which are limited generally to
the spheres of influence of the cities in the
The SANBAG Nexus Study determined
that the total development fair-share of cost that the County is responsible to
generate through THE PLAN is $197 million.
For each city sphere of influence or unincorporated area within the
boundaries of THE PLAN (hereafter “PLAN SUBAREA”), the fair share development
contribution amounts for which the County of San Bernardino is responsible, as
determined by the SANBAG Nexus Study, are as follows:
Table 2.1 – Total SANBAG Nexus Study
Fair-Share Costs of New Development
|
JURISDICTION |
Development Share of Total
Arterial Cost ($Mill) |
Development Share of Interchange
Cost ($Mill) |
Development Share of RR Grade Sep
Cost ($Mill) |
Development Share of Total Cost
($Mill) |
|
Adelanto
Sphere |
$0.71 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.71 |
|
|
$6.42 |
$9.39 |
$0.00 |
$15.82 |
|
|
$9.08 |
$1.37 |
$0.00 |
$10.44 |
|
|
$2.81 |
$0.23 |
$0.00 |
$3.04 |
|
Devore/Glen
Helen |
$10.52 |
$0.00 |
$4.19 |
$14.72 |
|
|
$20.31 |
$20.69 |
$0.00 |
$41.01 |
|
Hesperia
Sphere |
$9.19 |
$0.85 |
$0.00 |
$10.04 |
|
Loma
Linda Sphere |
$0.59 |
$5.27 |
$0.00 |
$5.86 |
|
|
$5.41 |
$2.56 |
$0.00 |
$7.97 |
|
|
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
|
|
$7.56 |
$7.43 |
$0.00 |
$14.99 |
|
|
$12.98 |
$12.55 |
$0.00 |
$25.54 |
|
|
$13.63 |
$12.81 |
$0.00 |
$26.44 |
|
San
Bernardino Sphere |
$2.69 |
$4.80 |
$0.00 |
$7.49 |
|
Upland
Sphere |
$5.65 |
$1.32 |
$0.00 |
$6.97 |
|
Victorville
Sphere |
$4.88 |
$0.45 |
$0.00 |
$5.33 |
|
|
$0.64 |
$0.00 |
$0.00 |
$0.64 |
|
TOTAL |
$113.07 |
$79.72 |
$4.19 |
$197.00 |
THE PLAN generates the above SANBAG
Nexus Study totals for Freeway Interchange and Railroad Grade Separation
costs. In the development of THE PLAN,
the total development contribution generated for major arterial costs above have
been increased significantly by
THE PLAN is intended to generate
only the development fair-share contribution of project costs as required by
the CMP and is not intended to provide 100% funding for or construction of all
projects listed in THE PLAN. Additional
regional Measure I and federal/state funds administered by SANBAG are required
for full funding of projects listed in THE PLAN.
(d)
THE
PLAN AND LOCAL AREA TRANSPORTATION
FACILITIES PLANS
THE PLAN is limited to regional
transportation facilities, and specifically the requirements of the CMP and the
SANBAG Nexus Study. In addition to THE
PLAN, the Board of Supervisors has adopted local area transportation facilities
plans as funding mechanisms for construction of or improvements to local
roads. The local area transportation
facilities plans are entirely separate from THE PLAN, as the primary intent of
those plans is to construct a backbone of north/south and east/west major
thoroughfares within the boundaries of an unincorporated community. THE PLAN is intended to meet the requirements
of the CMP by addressing the need for increased capacity on regional
transportation facilities as a result of increased vehicular traffic resulting
from new development.
Where THE PLAN and local area
transportation facilities plan boundaries overlap, separate fees will be
required of development for the regional and local plan in the overlapping area. Because the specific projects listed in THE
PLAN are unique from those found in the local area transportation facilities plans,
funds from overlapping plans shall not be intermingled. Planning and programming, updates and
revisions to THE PLAN may occur in conjunction with that of local
transportation facilities plans in order to provide a comprehensive program to meet
transportation needs in the unincorporated areas.
(e)
REGIONAL
DEVELOPMENT CONTRIBUTIONS NOT COVERED BY THE PLAN
Fees required by THE PLAN only apply
to development occurring within THE PLAN boundaries. For areas outside the
In the
(f)
CONFORMANCE
TO
Pursuant to Measure I 2010-2040, the
subsequent sections of THE PLAN are intended to satisfy all the requirements
set forth in the California Government Code, Chapter 5, Section 66000 et seq.,
Fees for Development Projects (also knows as California Assembly Bill 1600 (AB
1600) or the Mitigation Fee Act).
Requirements include:
1. Identify the purpose of the fee.
2. Identify the uses which are
supportive of the fee and the transportation facilities which will be provided
with the fees.
3. Determine that a reasonable
relationship exists between the fee's use and the type of development project
on which the fee is imposed.
4. Determine that a reasonable
relationship exists between the need for the transportation facilities and the
type of development project on which the fee is imposed.
5. Determine that a relationship exists
between the amount of the fee and the cost of the Transportation Facility, or
portion thereof, attributable to the development on which the fee is imposed.
6. Separate capital facilities funds
will be created to deposit, invest, account for, and expend the fees.
Section 3 - PLAN SUBAREAS AND BOUNDARIES
THE PLAN contains sixteen (16) PLAN
SUBAREAS, twelve (12) of which represent unincorporated areas within the San
Bernardino Valley and four (4) of which represent unincorporated areas within
the Victor Valley. With two exceptions,
the boundaries of these PLAN SUBAREAS will correspond exactly to the boundaries
of the city spheres of influence as defined at any time by the Local Agency Formation
Commission (LAFCO) of
1. Adelanto Sphere of Influence
2.
3.
4.
5. Devore/Glen Helen Unincorporated
Areas
6.
7. Hesperia Sphere of Influence
8. Loma Linda Sphere of Influence
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14. Upland Sphere of Influence
15. Victorville Sphere of Influence
16.
(a)
CONSISTENCY
WITH SANBAG NEXUS STUDY GROWTH FORECAST DATA
The following Growth forecast data
for THE PLAN is based upon the growth forecast data contained in the SANBAG
Nexus Study. The SANBAG Nexus Study
requires that local jurisdictions generate fair-share contributions from new development,
or “target share amounts”, which are based upon growth forecast data reviewed
and approved by local jurisdictions. In
order to remain consistency with the SANBAG Nexus Study and generate the
required “target share amounts”, THE PLAN utilizes the same forecast growth
data.
(b)
GROWTH
FORECAST METHODOLOGY
The SANBAG Nexus Study describes the
methodology for forecasting growth as follows:
“The calculation of fair share development contributions requires an
estimate of projected growth for residential and non-residential
development. The data set used as the
starting point for projection of residential development (single and
multi-family dwelling units) and non-residential development (retail and
non-retail employment) was the 2030 local input provided as part of the growth
forecasting process for the 2004 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). This iterative process, well-documented in the
2004 RTP of the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG),
generates an initial forecast for the entire Southern California region by
jurisdiction, which is then given to local jurisdictions for review, comment,
and possible modification. The “local
input” 2030 data set was used for the Nexus Study because it was developed
through the direct involvement of and review by each of the local
jurisdictions. Each local jurisdiction
signed off on its local input data in late 2002. These forecasts have been reviewed and
updated by local jurisdictions in early and mid-2005…. [The County Planning Department reviewed and
approved the forecasts as part of this process.]
The year 2004 was used as the base year for the analysis of growth
forecasts. The 2004 dwelling unit totals
by jurisdiction are based on California Department of Finance data. The 2004 employment data (retail and
non-retail) was derived by adding one year of growth to the 2003 employment
data reviewed by each of the local jurisdictions. The growth was estimated as 1/27th of the
projected growth between 2003 and 2030….”
By way of comparison, 12,640 new residential dwelling units were
permitted by local jurisdictions in
(c)
GROWTH
FORECAST DATA FOR PLAN
SUBAREAS
For residential and non-residential
development type, Growth Forecast Data is projected separately in each PLAN
SUBAREA to be used in calculating development impact fees. The tables below present the projected growth
over the 27-year planning period addressed by the SANBAG Nexus Study by
calculating the change between 2004 and 2030 residential dwelling units and
non-residential employment.
The growth for each of the
residential and non-residential categories was then converted to Passenger Car
Equivalents (PCEs) subtotals as a standard factor of vehicular trip generation. A Passenger Car Equivalents Trip is “trip
ends” divided by two. Residential trips
generation rates used in the SANBAG Nexus Study are based upon the
Single Family Dwelling Unit – 9.57
vehicle trip ends per day
Multi Family Dwelling Unit – 6.63
vehicle trip ends per day
Retail – 19.5 vehicle trip ends per
employee per day
Non-retail – 1.85 vehicle trip ends
per employee per day
An example calculation of Single
Family dwelling units (SFDU) PCE trip growth for the Adelanto Sphere is:
SFDU trip ends divided by 2
9.57
/ 2 = 4.79
PCE Trips times 2004-2030 Change in
SFDU = PCE Trip Growth for SFDU 2004-2030
4.79
x 83 = 397
Table 4.1 – Single
Family Residences (SFR)
|
JURISDICTION |
Single Family Dwelling Units 2004 |
Single Family Dwelling Units 2030 |
Growth in Single Family Dwelling
Units 2004-2030 |
PCE Trip Growth for Single Family
2004-2030 |
|
Adelanto
Sphere |
62 |
145 |
83 |
397 |
|
|
1,539 |
4,000 |
2,461 |
11,776 |
|
|
1,243 |
1,837 |
594 |
2,842 |
|
|
674 |
983 |
309 |
1,479 |
|
Devore/Glen
Helen |
1,102 |
3,635 |
2,533 |
12,120 |
|
|
5,634 |
8,706 |
3,072 |
14,700 |
|
Hesperia
Sphere |
1,667 |
3,019 |
1,352 |
6,469 |
|
Loma
Linda Sphere |
245 |
1,173 |
928 |
4,440 |
|
|
1,289 |
1,949 |
660 |
3,158 |
|
Rancho
Cuc. Sphere |
30 |
47 |
17 |
81 |
|
|
2,307 |
3,910 |
1,603 |
7,670 |
|
|
3 |
10 |
7 |
33 |
|
|
5,805 |
9,489 |
3,684 |
17,628 |
|
San
Bernardino Sphere |
6,838 |
8,662 |
1,824 |
8,728 |
|
Upland
Sphere |
1,144 |
1,680 |
536 |
2,565 |
|
Victorville
Sphere |
3,748 |
4,356 |
608 |
2,909 |
|
|
123 |
204 |
81 |
388 |
|
Sphere
Totals |
33,453 |
53,805 |
20,352 |
97,384 |
Calculations for PCE Trip Growth for
Multi Family and non-residential development are based upon the same formula,
using the corresponding PCE trip generation rates.
Table 4.2 – Multi Family Residences
(MFR)
|
JURISDICTION |
Multi-Family Dwelling Units 2004 |
Multi-Family Dwelling Units 2030 |
Growth in Multi-Family Dwelling
Units 2004-2030 |
PCE Trip Growth for Multi-Family
2004-2030 |
|
Adelanto
Sphere |
26 |
50 |
24 |
80 |
|
|
325 |
457 |
132 |
438 |
|
|
357 |
513 |
156 |
517 |
|
|
175 |
299 |
124 |
411 |
|
Devore/Glen
Helen |
121 |
338 |
217 |
719 |
|
|
1,922 |
3,501 |
1,579 |
5,234 |
|
Hesperia
Sphere |
372 |
524 |
152 |
504 |
|
Loma
Linda Sphere |
122 |
281 |
159 |
527 |
|
|
830 |
1,160 |
330 |
1,094 |
|
Rancho
Cuc. Sphere |
4 |
7 |
3 |
10 |
|
|
735 |
1,233 |
498 |
1,651 |
|
|
11 |
11 |
- |
-
|
|
|
876 |
1,344 |
468 |
1,551 |
|
San
Bernardino Sphere |
2,142 |
2,853 |
711 |
2,357 |
|
Upland
Sphere |
72 |
105 |
33 |
109 |
|
Victorville
Sphere |
392 |
649 |
257 |
852 |
|
|
40 |
63 |
23 |
76 |
|
Sphere
Totals |
8,522 |
13,388 |
4,866 |
16,131 |
Table 4.3 – Retail Employment
|
JURISDICTION |
Retail Employees 2004 |
Retail Employees 2030 |
Growth in Retail Employees
2004-2030 |
PCE Trip Growth for Retail
Employees 2004-2030 |
|
Adelanto
Sphere |
2 |
18 |
16 |
156 |
|
|
58 |
120 |
62 |
605 |
|
|
626 |
1,078 |
452 |
4,407 |
|
|
22 |
51 |
29 |